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Aon: Terrorism & Political Violence newsletter Q4 2016

Complementing the annual Terrorism and Political Violence Risk Map, Aon’s terrorism and political violence newsletter is developed in partnership with The Risk Advisory Group, a leading independent global risk consultancy that helps businesses grow whilst protecting their people, their assets and their brands. The newsletter is released on a quarterly basis and provides insight into changing threat levels globally as well as profiling specific sectors and countries.

The terrorism and political violence outlook going into 2017 is one of worsening risk, with five countries now rated as worsening – including the US.
 
The last quarterly focused on the terrorist threat – particularly from Islamic State and its adherents – to Western countries. The political repercussions of terrorism in the West over the past two years have been increasingly evident in the rise of right-wing populism and Islamophobia in Europe and the US. This threat seems to have contributed to the surprise electoral victory of Donald Trump.
 
It is too soon to say whether the electoral success of Trump will lead to greater political violence risks in the West and other regions. But so far, the lessons from the Brexit vote and Trump’s victory suggest that we can expect to see greater levels of far-right political violence in Western countries.
 
To some extent, this pattern is already becoming measureable. In the UK, the authorities reported a 41% increase in hate crimes directed against minorities in the month following the referendum vote on EU membership compared with the month before. In the US, there have been similar reports of hate crimes and political violence. At the same time, there have also been numerous protests – some turning violent – against Trump, and reports of violence at counter protests by Trump supporters.
 
According to the 2016 Timbro Authoritarian Populism Index, in Europe, far-right and far-left populist parties now enjoy around 18.5% of the total popular vote. Such political developments in the West create uncertainty, and carry wider ramifications for international businesses concerned with political violence risks. Perhaps the most pressing of these risks at present is whether the Iraqi-led operation to retake Mosul from IS will lead to reprisals by the group and its followers internationally, including by returnee fighters. Or indeed whether it will reduce the threat. It has only been seven weeks since the operation began and to date Risk Advisory has corroborated at least 12 IS-claimed attacks worldwide outside of Iraq and Syria, compared with four such attacks in the same time period before the Mosul offensive began. 
 
At a broader level, Trump’s foreign policy intentions are unclear, which in itself is a source of uncertainty and suggests the current outlook is one of much greater volatility. His mix of threats to use greater force in some cases – such as against IS – alongside indications of an intent to retrench from the Middle East, point to an inconsistent approach to managing relations and crises.
 
Other risks include new tensions with China over Taiwan, potentially going back on the nuclear deal with Iran, and whether his policies will undermine confidence in US commitment to NATO.
 
Perhaps the greatest question for political violence risks in 2017 overall is what role the US will play internationally in working with allies and partners to resolve domestic and international crises worldwide. Taking the president-elect at his word, the kinds of measures the US has taken to keep the international order relatively stable can no longer be taken for granted.
 
Such international leadership includes political, economic and military interventions to prevent or arrest the growth of terrorist groups within weak states. It includes deterring aggressive and destabilising actions and agitations between states, such as military manoeuvres on borders, state-sponsored terrorism, unrest or even coup attempts – patterns we seem to be seeing in Eastern Europe. If the US does step back from playing a leading role in the international order in 2017, terrorism and civil unrest as the dominant political violence trends may give way to much higher impact geopolitical risks. 

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