Share of unemployed lifted by December’s seasonality
9.01.2017Company: Amcham
Though December’s share of unemployed increased three ticks compared with November’s figure, the increase is solely due to seasonal factors. After calendar effects’ adjustment, we see a continuous decline that reflects favourable trends in the economy. Despite a negative seasonal pattern, the share of unemployed declined in three districts.
The share of unemployed increased in December to 5.2%, and it increased three ticks compared with the November figure. However, these three ticks do not reflect the slowdown in the economy, but rather they mirror the seasonal effect on the number of unemployed. After the calendar effects’ adjustment, the share of unemployed decreased from 5.2% in November to 5.1% in December, according to our calculations. The number of open vacancies showed a slight decrease. However, this was also affected by calendar effects. After removing seasonality, we see an improvement in these statistics, as well. The ratio of job seekers to vacancies after adjusting for seasonality is steady around 2.7. This is the lowest value since October 2008.
Economic activity has been gaining momentum in recent months, which translates into demand for a labour force. On the other side of the labour market equation lies the weak supply of labour. Especially in some industrial sectors, it very difficult to find a skilled labour force. The situation is not set to change this year. However, the share of unemployed will not decrease as rapidly as last year, as it has little room for steep declines. Nevertheless, during the year, it can drop below 4.5%. The lack of an available labour force together with sound economic growth will press on wage growth. In the third quarter of 2016, the nominal wages increased 4.5% yoy. This year, we expect even higher figures.
Tags: Economics | Finance | Human Resources |
